Solar System
Dynamics
Group 		2009 AV

Number of original observations: 10
Arc : 2009 01 02 - 2009 01 03
Nominal rms: 0″.29 (20 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2017, 2051, 2054





Year: 2017


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
20081130
20170214		 1.107145828
1.107818353		 0.108464081
0.109013046		 47.4827556
47.4768011		 152.9917843
152.9760047		 348.1125446
348.2258845		 348.3804723
2.9384242		 0″.35
 

Impact date: 2017 02 21.658 (UT)   Vimpact= 27.278 km/sec   Ψimpact = 54°.20  

Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Year: 2051


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
20081130
20510215		 1.110781668
1.111031320		 0.111549012
0.111715159		 47.4147927
47.4166222		 152.9758448
152.8908544		 348.1092056
348.2828083		 348.4219848
3.1761415		 0″.35
 

Impact date: 2051 02 22.290 (UT)   Vimpact= 27.263 km/sec   Ψimpact =64°.21  



Year: 2054


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
20081130
20540816		 0.987262728
0.987830879		 0.060693720
0.060800839		 45.1968471
45.1918727		 149.6432249
149.5524118		 296.5030548
296.2272662		 32.2515628
242.9239500		 0″.31
 

Impact date: 2054 08 23.185 (UT)   Vimpact= 25.168 km/sec   Ψimpact =6°.48  



External links:

2009 AV page (NASA JPL) and Impact Risk page NEO Program (NASA JPL)
2009 AV page and Impact Risk page at the NEO Dynamic Site (NEODyS)




Solar System Dynamics & Planetology Group, 2009. All rights reserved