Solar System
Dynamics
Group
2011 AG5
older result

Asteroid 2011 AG5 was discovered on January 8, 2011 by Mt. Lemmon Survey. It has a diameter of about 100—230 meters. The asteroid 2011 AG5 will make a close pass (36.6 lunar distances, 0.0941 AU), travelling at 7.73 km/second, to the Earth-Moon system on the 24th February, 2011.

Number of original observations: 128
Arc : 2011 01 08 - 2011 05 07
Nominal rms: 0″.26 (256 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2036, 2040, 2045, 2046, 2047, 2051





Year: 2036


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110608

20360129
1.430709792
-18.22
1.382492165
0.390614488
-18.22
0.375772679
3.6811444
-18.57
3.9073511
135.7111821
18.76
135.4768369
53.4804526
-18.80
56.9824246
43.5949282
18.22
329.3453705
0″.41

 

Impact date: 2036 02 05.120 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.413 km/sec   Ψimpact = 31°.61  

dev/σ
Deviation from the nominal orbit parameter divided by the respective uncertainty.
Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Year: 2040


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110608

20400129
1.430571674
-3.26
1.424993780
0.390541039
-3.27
0.388827212
3.6804661
-3.37
3.6976143
135.7128317
3.56
135.4885149
53.4782966
-3.53
54.2206045
43.6009329
3.25
331.8469405
0″.27

 

Impact date: 2040 02 05.158 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.380 km/sec   Ψimpact = 17°.89  

Year: 2045


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110608

20450129
1.430572711
-3.37
1.406252224
0.390541588
-3.38
0.383204089
3.6804697
-3.45
3.7319013
135.7128340
3.54
135.4283194
53.4782979
-3.54
55.4732938
43.6008878
3.36
331.2002866
0″.27

 

Impact date: 2045 02 04.423 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.406 km/sec   Ψimpact =31°.47  

Year: 2046


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110608

20460129
1.430704381
-17.63
1.392621771
0.390611734
-17.66
0.379291889
3.6811072
-17.74
3.8432969
135.7113379
17.32
135.3220177
53.4802747
-17.54
56.4066926
43.5951799
17.59
330.2939028
0″.40

 

Impact date: 2046 02 04.530 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.382 km/sec   Ψimpact = 21°.45  

Year: 2047


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110608

20470129
1.430570999
-3.19
1.452390156
0.390540660
-3.19
0.397053437
3.6804526
-3.06
3.6517927
135.7129419
2.55
135.4080491
53.4781820
-2.71
52.5936077
43.6009616
3.18
333.4626378
0″.27

 

Impact date: 2047 02 04.918 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.435 km/sec   Ψimpact = 35°.39  

Year: 2051


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110608

20510129
1.430702607
-17.44
1.395054294
0.390610820
-17.47
0.379780241
3.6810835
-17.21
3.8224351
135.7115033
15.80
135.3656773
53.4800990
-16.29
56.2320406
43.5952636
17.38
330.2346391
0″.41

 

Impact date: 2051 02 04.920 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.668 km/sec   Ψimpact = 67°.28  


Oldest results


Number of original observations: 105
Arc : 2011 01 08 - 2011 02 13
Nominal rms: 0″.37 (207 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2036, 2040, 2046, 2051, 2052, 2057





Year: 2036


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110208

20360129
1.430621216
-3.72
1.382492160
0.390613620
-3.71
0.375773843
3.6829372
-3.73
3.9076730
135.7325101
3.77
135.4773829
53.5079123
-3.70
56.9821195
334.4593186
-3.72
329.3453174
0″.38

 

Impact date: 2036 02 05.120 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.418 km/sec   Ψimpact = 32°.37  

dev/σ
Deviation from the nominal orbit parameter divided by the respective uncertainty.
Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Year: 2040


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110208

20400129
1.430483056
-2.13
1.424993780
0.390539005
-2.16
0.388828030
3.6823024
-2.23
3.6976200
135.7337084
2.32
135.4886724
53.5059705
-2.49
54.2207058
334.4553863
-2.05
331.8468571
0″.38

 

Impact date: 2040 02 05.158 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.380 km/sec   Ψimpact =18°.04  

Year: 2046


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110208

20460129
1.430615802
-3.65
1.392621767
0.390610397
-3.65
0.379293060
3.6829080
-3.66
3.8434291
135.7325588
3.71
135.3225110
53.5077542
-3.60
56.4065057
334.4591968
-3.66
330.2938249
0″.38

 

Impact date: 2046 02 04.530 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.383 km/sec   Ψimpact =22°.03  

Year: 2051


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110208

20510129
1.430614032
-3.63
1.395054287
0.390608890
-3.62
0.379780932
3.6828859
-3.61
3.8225109
135.7326212
3.63
135.3660657
53.5075350
-3.46
56.2318612
334.4592056
-3.67
330.2346219
0″.38

 

Impact date: 2051 02 04.920 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.655 km/sec   Ψimpact =66°.26  

Year: 2052


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110208

20520129
1.430268246
0.34
1.427971642
0.390417607
0.37
0.389705634
3.6811921
0.38
3.6894318
135.7359277
-0.36
135.3927048
53.5011605
0.52
54.0695984
334.4498487
0.30
332.0026951
0″.37

 

Impact date: 2052 02 05.179 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.443 km/sec   Ψimpact =39°.35  

Year: 2057


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 
20110208

20570129
1.430271671
0.30
1.406194039
0.390421398
0.29
0.383227199
3.6812500
0.24
3.7230140
135.7357851
-0.19
135.3339839
53.5018404
0.10
55.5015664
334.4497376
0.34
331.1947150
0″.37

 

Impact date: 2057 02 04.415 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.534 km/sec   Ψimpact =52°.51  



External links:

2011 AG5 page (NASA JPL) and Impact Risk page NEO Program (NASA JPL)
2011 AG5 page and Impact Risk page at the NEO Dynamic Site (NEODyS)




Solar System Dynamics & Planetology Group, 2008. All rights reserved