Solar System
Dynamics
Group 		(99942) Apophis
2004 MN4

Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-founded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey from Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona.
Precovery observations from March 15, 2004 were identified on December 27, 2004.
Observations from the arc: June—December 2004 indicated a probability that Apophis would strike the Earth in 2029. The present observations eliminated that probability, however during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a 'gravitational keyhole' — a well-defined region in space no more than about few hundred meters across — that would put it on a collision course with Earth in 2036 or later.

Number of original observations: 1000
Arc : 2004 03 15 - 2006 08 16
Nominal rms: 0″.31 (1971 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2036, 2037, 2046, 2048, 2054, 2055, 2059, 2065, 2076





Year: 2036


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20360407 		0.922263089
3.56
1.108425237 		0.191058774
-3.08
0.191387306 		3.3313308
-2.99
2.1715008 		204.4601761
-2.33
203.4808017 		126.3953244
2.69
70.3080945 		84.7865855
-3.12
303.9200861 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2036 04 13.366 (UT)   Vimpact= 12.918 km/sec   Ψimpact = 31°.47  

Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.





Year: 2037


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20370407 		0.922263251
-3.41
1.093191585 		0.191058226
3.73
0.186808827 		3.3313201
5.10
2.3277163 		204.4600465
1.72
203.4811471 		126.3954922
-2.51
73.9623655 		84.7864301
3.24
300.0430817 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2037 04 13.639(UT)   Vimpact= 12.934 km/sec   Ψimpact = 38°.87  



Year: 2046


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20460407 		0.922263318
-6.30
1.086469829 		0.191057984
6.74
0.184803228 		3.3313197
5.40
2.4136332 		204.4601510
-1.55
202.9700793 		126.3954070
0.13
75.4351911 		84.7863623
6.01
298.7125071 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2046 04 13.335(UT)   Vimpact= 12.743 km/sec   Ψimpact = 4°.18  



Year: 2048


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20480407 		0.922263443
-12.11
1.076877240 		0.191057625
10.27
0.182452222 		3.3313117
6.54
2.4934747 		204.4603120
7.89
203.3370970 		126.3952100
-9.43
78.0442963 		84.7863235
11.62
296.2100520 		0″.31
 

Impact date: 2048 04 13.281(UT)   Vimpact= 12.919 km/sec   Ψimpact = 22°.83  



Year: 2054


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20540407 		0.922263255
-3.59
1.086722381 		0.191058197
4.09
0.185182832 		3.3313212
4.27
2.3527616 		204.4601565
-1.72
203.0276135 		126.3953852
0.80
75.3931815 		84.7864267
3.38
298.6950449 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2054 04 13.397(UT)   Vimpact= 12.537 km/sec   Ψimpact = 36°.65  



Year: 2055


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20550407 		0.922263322
-6.47
1.082023838 		0.191057966
6.96
0.183918511 		3.3313189
6.01
2.4075410 		204.4602070
-3.30
203.0562403 		126.3953508
1.87
76.6258306 		84.7863627
6.00
297.2038397 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2055 04 13.726(UT)   Vimpact= 12.720 km/sec   Ψimpact = 9°.22  



Year: 2059


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20590407 		0.922263252
-3.46
1.102586437 		0.191058179
4.31
0.189249766 		3.3313198
5.33
2.3137198 		204.4601807
-2.48
203.0819268 		126.3953682
1.33
71.6561666 		84.7864285
3.30
302.1232186 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2059 04 13.950 (UT)   Vimpact= 12.814 km/sec   Ψimpact = 74°.58  



Year: 2065


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20650407 		0.922263452
-12.06
1.086459350 		0.191057779
9.29
0.184570380 		3.3313206
4.72
2.5037114 		204.4600416
1.87
202.5976344 		126.3955222
-3.44
75.3981962 		84.7862200
11.84
299.1600541 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2065 04 12.862(UT)   Vimpact= 12.730 km/sec   Ψimpact = 3°.98  



Year: 2076


Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20060922

20760407 		0.922263146
1.10
1.086675424 		0.191058604
-0.97
0.185403406 		3.3313282
-1.02
2.2686612 		204.4601380
-1.14
202.6213668 		126.3953735
1.16
75.4858831 		84.7865288
-0.80
299.3072400 		0″.31

 

Impact date: 2076 04 12.693(UT) (UT)   Vimpact= 12.650 km/sec   Ψimpact = 18°.13  

External links:

2004 MN4 page (NASA JPL) and Impact Risk page NEO Program (NASA JPL)
2004 MN4 page and Impact Risk page at the NEO Dynamic Site (NEODyS)





Solar System Dynamics & Planetology Group, 2008. All rights reserved