Solar System Dynamics Group (99942) Apophis 2004 MN4

Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-founded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey from Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona.
Precovery observations from March 15, 2004 were identified on December 27, 2004.
Observations from the arc: June—December 2004 indicated a probability that Apophis would strike the Earth in 2029. The present observations eliminated that probability, however during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a 'gravitational keyhole' — a well-defined region in space no more than about few hundred meters across — that would put it on a collision course with Earth in 2036 or later.

#### Year: 2036

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20360407
0.922263089
3.56
1.108425237
0.191058774
-3.08
0.191387306
3.3313308
-2.99
2.1715008
204.4601761
-2.33
203.4808017
126.3953244
2.69
70.3080945
84.7865855
-3.12
303.9200861
0″.31

Impact date: 2036 04 13.366 (UT)   Vimpact= 12.918 km/sec   Ψimpact = 31°.47

Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

#### Year: 2037

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20370407
0.922263251
-3.41
1.093191585
0.191058226
3.73
0.186808827
3.3313201
5.10
2.3277163
204.4600465
1.72
203.4811471
126.3954922
-2.51
73.9623655
84.7864301
3.24
300.0430817
0″.31

Impact date: 2037 04 13.639(UT)   Vimpact= 12.934 km/sec   Ψimpact = 38°.87

#### Year: 2046

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20460407
0.922263318
-6.30
1.086469829
0.191057984
6.74
0.184803228
3.3313197
5.40
2.4136332
204.4601510
-1.55
202.9700793
126.3954070
0.13
75.4351911
84.7863623
6.01
298.7125071
0″.31

Impact date: 2046 04 13.335(UT)   Vimpact= 12.743 km/sec   Ψimpact = 4°.18

#### Year: 2048

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20480407
0.922263443
-12.11
1.076877240
0.191057625
10.27
0.182452222
3.3313117
6.54
2.4934747
204.4603120
7.89
203.3370970
126.3952100
-9.43
78.0442963
84.7863235
11.62
296.2100520
0″.31

Impact date: 2048 04 13.281(UT)   Vimpact= 12.919 km/sec   Ψimpact = 22°.83

#### Year: 2054

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20540407
0.922263255
-3.59
1.086722381
0.191058197
4.09
0.185182832
3.3313212
4.27
2.3527616
204.4601565
-1.72
203.0276135
126.3953852
0.80
75.3931815
84.7864267
3.38
298.6950449
0″.31

Impact date: 2054 04 13.397(UT)   Vimpact= 12.537 km/sec   Ψimpact = 36°.65

#### Year: 2055

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20550407
0.922263322
-6.47
1.082023838
0.191057966
6.96
0.183918511
3.3313189
6.01
2.4075410
204.4602070
-3.30
203.0562403
126.3953508
1.87
76.6258306
84.7863627
6.00
297.2038397
0″.31

Impact date: 2055 04 13.726(UT)   Vimpact= 12.720 km/sec   Ψimpact = 9°.22

#### Year: 2059

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20590407
0.922263252
-3.46
1.102586437
0.191058179
4.31
0.189249766
3.3313198
5.33
2.3137198
204.4601807
-2.48
203.0819268
126.3953682
1.33
71.6561666
84.7864285
3.30
302.1232186
0″.31

Impact date: 2059 04 13.950 (UT)   Vimpact= 12.814 km/sec   Ψimpact = 74°.58

#### Year: 2065

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20650407
0.922263452
-12.06
1.086459350
0.191057779
9.29
0.184570380
3.3313206
4.72
2.5037114
204.4600416
1.87
202.5976344
126.3955222
-3.44
75.3981962
84.7862200
11.84
299.1600541
0″.31

Impact date: 2065 04 12.862(UT)   Vimpact= 12.730 km/sec   Ψimpact = 3°.98

#### Year: 2076

Impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms

dev/σ

20060922

20760407
0.922263146
1.10
1.086675424
0.191058604
-0.97
0.185403406
3.3313282
-1.02
2.2686612
204.4601380
-1.14
202.6213668
126.3953735
1.16
75.4858831
84.7865288
-0.80
299.3072400
0″.31

Impact date: 2076 04 12.693(UT) (UT)   Vimpact= 12.650 km/sec   Ψimpact = 18°.13