Solar System
Dynamics
Group 		2009 WM1
older results

Asteroid 2009 WM1 was discovered on November 17, 2009 by Catalina Sky Survey. It has a diameter of about 250—560 meters.

Number of original observations: 84
Arc : 2009 11 17 - 2010 01 24
Nominal rms: 0″.47 (168 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2091





Year: 2091


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20100104

20911116		 1.180536859
2.63
1.246498938		 0.168964509
2.65
0.213002077		 25.7630344
2.61
25.2817766		 240.3019873
2.63
239.9881991		 162.5731262
2.36
164.1024819		 52.1867666
-2.60
4.9273048		 0″.51

 

Impact date: 2091 11 23.346 (UT)   Vimpact= 18.217 km/sec   Ψimpact = 34°.93  

dev/σ
Deviation from the nominal orbit parameter divided by the respective uncertainty.
Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Number of original observations: 62
Arc : 2009 11 17 - 2009 11 26
Nominal rms: 0″.50 (124 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2018, 2022, 2023, 2026, 2027, 2032





Year: 2018


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20100104

20181115		 1.184717872
-13.39
1.184837871		 0.171811202
-13.36
0.171958765		 25.9301566
-13.29
25.9376809		 240.3716968
-13.30
240.3379919		 162.7153693
-12.79
162.7815575		 51.7982638
13.18
5.9524350		 0″.52

 

Impact date: 2018 11 22.955 (UT)   Vimpact= 18.070 km/sec   Ψimpact = 66°.76  

dev/σ
Deviation from the nominal orbit parameter divided by the respective uncertainty.
Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Year: 2022


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20100104

20221115		 1.184736858
-13.45
1.211483020		 0.171823991
-13.42
0.189544607		 25.9307953
-13.35
25.7565381		 240.3719629
-13.36
240.3026052		 162.7161893
-12.87
164.4078790		 51.7963845
13.24
4.5919253		 0″.52

 

Impact date: 2022 11 22.947 (UT)   Vimpact= 18.273 km/sec   Ψimpact =23°.14  

Year: 2023


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20100104

20231115		 1.184697832
-13.33
1.160578327		 0.171796661
-13.29
0.155225313		 25.9278988
-13.11
26.1034137		 240.3707471
-13.12
240.2980666		 162.7168498
-12.93
161.1248993		 51.7985647
13.16
7.2349710		 0″.52

 

Impact date: 2023 11 23.196 (UT)   Vimpact= 18.284 km/sec   Ψimpact =22°.35  

Year: 2026


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20100104

20261115		 1.184712953
-13.38
1.093149951		 0.171807252
-13.34
0.104589384		 25.9292894
-13.23
26.6045107		 240.3713317
-13.23
240.2890552		 162.7163654
-12.88
155.0306430		 51.7978911
13.19
13.3834847		 0″.52

 

Impact date: 2026 11 22.958 (UT)   Vimpact= 18.354 km/sec   Ψimpact =46°.72  

Year: 2027


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20100104

20271115		 1.183832157
-10.54
1.183388797		 0.171210166
-10.52
0.170893581		 25.8944169
-10.45
25.9033015		 240.3567759
-10.45
240.2864983		 162.6858101
-10.10
162.7258618		 51.8797937
10.39
5.8114337		 0″.51

 

Impact date: 2027 11 23.214 (UT)   Vimpact= 18.072 km/sec   Ψimpact =44°.31  

Year: 2032


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20100104

20321115		 1.178398063
6.96
1.178596832		 0.167501272
6.97
0.167575390		 25.6776769
6.83
25.6835342		 240.2664724
6.81
240.1858477		 162.4968400
7.11
162.6228012		 52.3895680
-7.02
6.5602116		 0″.51

 

Impact date: 2032 11 22.406 (UT)   Vimpact= 17.992 km/sec   Ψimpact =63°.65  



External links:

2009 WM1 page (NASA JPL) and Impact Risk page NEO Program (NASA JPL)
2009 WM1 page and Impact Risk page at the NEO Dynamic Site (NEODyS)




Solar System Dynamics & Planetology Group, 2008. All rights reserved