Solar System
Dynamics
Group 		2011 AG5
older result

Asteroid 2011 AG5 was discovered on January 8, 2011 by Mt. Lemmon Survey. It has a diameter of about 100—230 meters. The asteroid 2011 AG5 made a close pass (36.6 lunar distances, 0.0941 AU), travelling at 7.73 km/second, to the Earth-Moon system on the 24th February, 2011.

Number of original observations: 197
Arc : 2011 01 08 - 2011 09 21
Nominal rms: 0″.28 (394 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2040, 2042, 2045, 2047





Year: 2040


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20111006

20400129		 1.430512723
-2.64
1.424993779		 0.390481239
-2.58
0.388827020		 3.6805341
-2.56
3.6976147 		135.7119693
2.61
135.4885871		 53.4756377
-2.48
54.2204954		 112.7372643
2.59
331.8469446		 0″.28

 

Impact date: 2040 02 05.158 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.380 km/sec   Ψimpact = 17°.93  

dev/σ
Deviation from the nominal orbit parameter divided by the respective uncertainty.
Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Year: 2042


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20111006

20420129		 1.430512600
-2.57
1.587820505		 0.390481167
-2.52
0.435105715		 3.6805280
-2.03
3.5015718 		135.7120275
1.26
135.4158225		 53.4755801
-1.36
45.3579992		 112.7372771
2.53
339.5487458		 0″.29

 

Impact date: 2042 02 04.668 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.680 km/sec   Ψimpact = 72°.20  

Year: 2045


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20111006

20450129		 1.430513760
-3.16
1.406252226		 0.390481823
-3.12
0.383203919		 3.6805385
-2.94
3.7319069 		135.7119834
2.28
135.4284021		 53.4756304
-2.33
55.4731740		 112.7371457
3.10
331.2002919		 0″.29

 

Impact date: 2045 02 04.423 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.406 km/sec   Ψimpact =31°.40  

Year: 2047


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20111006

20470129		 1.430512048
-2.29
1.452390154		 0.390480869
-2.24
0.397053267		 3.6805270
-1.95
3.6517971 		135.7120119
1.63
135.4080536		 53.4755903
-1.56
52.5935673		 112.7373434
2.25
333.4626458		 0″.29

 

Impact date: 2047 02 04.918 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.435 km/sec   Ψimpact = 35°.40  

Shorter observational intervals

Number of original observations: 119
Arc : 2011 01 08 - 2011 02 20
Nominal rms: 0″.28 (237 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2036, 2040, 2046, 2051, 2052, 2057





Year: 2036


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20360129		 1.430621230
-8.79
1.382492165		 0.390613020
-8.79
0.375773480		 3.6829423
-8.87
3.9075709 		135.7322834
9.10
135.4771787		 53.5079341
-8.94
56.9822024		 334.4594303
-8.76
329.3453599		 0″.33

 

Impact date: 2036 02 05.120 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.416 km/sec   Ψimpact = 32°.14  

dev/σ
Deviation from the nominal orbit parameter divided by the respective uncertainty.
Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Year: 2040


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20400129		 1.430483080
-5.57
1.424993775		 0.390537517
-5.60
0.388826525		 3.6822757
-5.65
3.6975926 		135.7336609
5.73
135.4886286		 53.5055749
-5.82
54.2203058		 334.4555910
-5.52
331.8469974		 0″.30

 

Impact date: 2040 02 05.158 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.379 km/sec   Ψimpact =17°.98  

Year: 2046


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20460129		 1.430615809
-8.66
1.392621767		 0.390610560
-8.69
0.379293378		 3.6829260
-8.80
3.8433886 		135.7323040
9.05
135.3222712		 53.5080014
-9.03
56.4067800		 334.4592317
-8.59
330.2938227		 0″.33

 

Impact date: 2046 02 04.530 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.383 km/sec   Ψimpact =21°.82  

Year: 2051


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20510129		 1.430614029
-3.63
1.395054309		 0.390610027
-3.62
0.379782223		 3.6829183
-3.61
3.8225054 		135.7323617
3.63
135.3658204		 53.5080400
-3.46
56.2323802		 334.4591417
-3.67
330.2345623		 0″.33

 

Impact date: 2051 02 04.920 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.658 km/sec   Ψimpact =66°.61  

Year: 2052


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20520129		 1.430268239
0.34
1.427971648		 0.390418753
0.37
0.389706787		 3.6812261
0.38
3.6894655 		135.7357739
-0.36
135.3925575		 53.5016071
0.52
54.0700411		 334.4497418
0.30
332.0026158		 0″.28

 

Impact date: 2052 02 05.179 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.444 km/sec   Ψimpact =39°.46  

Year: 2057


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20570129		 1.430271678
-0.65
1.406194044		 0.390421023
-0.67
0.383226857		 3.6812675
-0.77
3.7230130 		135.7355617
1.07
135.3337615		 53.5019476
-1.01
55.5016859		 334.4497949
-0.62
331.1947461		 0″.29

 

Impact date: 2057 02 04.415 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.537 km/sec   Ψimpact =52°.86  




Oldest result




Number of original observations: 105
Arc : 2011 01 08 - 2011 02 13
Nominal rms: 0″.37 (207 residuals)

Possible collisions in: 2036, 2040, 2046, 2051, 2052, 2057





Year: 2036


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20360129		 1.430621216
-3.72
1.382492160		 0.390613620
-3.71
0.375773843		 3.6829372
-3.73
3.9076730 		135.7325101
3.77
135.4773829		 53.5079123
-3.70
56.9821195		 334.4593186
-3.72
329.3453174		 0″.38

 

Impact date: 2036 02 05.120 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.418 km/sec   Ψimpact = 32°.37  

dev/σ
Deviation from the nominal orbit parameter divided by the respective uncertainty.
Vimpact
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the moment of impact.
Ψimpact
The impact angle is measured from the vertical axis that goes through the impact point. Thus, the impact angle is 0 degrees for a vertical impact.
rms
Root mean square for the derived impact orbit.

Year: 2040


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20400129		 1.430483056
-2.13
1.424993780		 0.390539005
-2.16
0.388828030		 3.6823024
-2.23
3.6976200 		135.7337084
2.32
135.4886724		 53.5059705
-2.49
54.2207058		 334.4553863
-2.05
331.8468571		 0″.38

 

Impact date: 2040 02 05.158 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.380 km/sec   Ψimpact =18°.04  

Year: 2046


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20460129		 1.430615802
-3.65
1.392621767		 0.390610397
-3.65
0.379293060		 3.6829080
-3.66
3.8434291 		135.7325588
3.71
135.3225110		 53.5077542
-3.60
56.4065057		 334.4591968
-3.66
330.2938249		 0″.38

 

Impact date: 2046 02 04.530 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.383 km/sec   Ψimpact =22°.03  

Year: 2051


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20510129		 1.430614032
-3.63
1.395054287		 0.390608890
-3.62
0.379780932		 3.6828859
-3.61
3.8225109 		135.7326212
3.63
135.3660657		 53.5075350
-3.46
56.2318612		 334.4592056
-3.67
330.2346219		 0″.38

 

Impact date: 2051 02 04.920 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.655 km/sec   Ψimpact =66°.26  

Year: 2052


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20520129		 1.430268246
0.34
1.427971642		 0.390417607
0.37
0.389705634		 3.6811921
0.38
3.6894318 		135.7359277
-0.36
135.3927048		 53.5011605
0.52
54.0695984		 334.4498487
0.30
332.0026951		 0″.37

 

Impact date: 2052 02 05.179 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.443 km/sec   Ψimpact =39°.35  

Year: 2057


Orbital elements of impact orbit for two dates (equ. J2000)

Epoch [TT] a [AU] e i [deg] Ω [deg] ω [deg] M [deg] rms
 
dev/σ
 		 20110208

20570129		 1.430271671
0.30
1.406194039		 0.390421398
0.29
0.383227199		 3.6812500
0.24
3.7230140 		135.7357851
-0.19
135.3339839		 53.5018404
0.10
55.5015664		 334.4497376
0.34
331.1947150		 0″.37

 

Impact date: 2057 02 04.415 (UT)   Vimpact= 14.534 km/sec   Ψimpact =52°.51  



External links:

2011 AG5 page (NASA JPL) and Impact Risk page NEO Program (NASA JPL)
2011 AG5 page and Impact Risk page at the NEO Dynamic Site (NEODyS)




Solar System Dynamics & Planetology Group, 2008. All rights reserved